Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1038 (N13W81) was
a single spot Axx group today and continues to decay as it
approaches the west limb. No flares were observed during the past
24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind observations from the
ACE spacecraft show a possible weak, short lived, coronal hole
signature during the past 24 hours. Velocities steadily increased
after 24/0300Z from 350 km/s to 450 km/s as the density decreased.
Solar wind speed has since slowly decreased and returned to around
350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (25-27
December).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 077 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 074/072/072 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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