Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1041 (S21E61) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C4 at 21/0120Z. Region 1041 also produced a long
duration B4 flare at 21/1733Z. Region 1041 has remained stable and
is classified as a Cao-beta with 7 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions at high latitudes. The effects of the
co-rotating interaction region have subsided and data from the ACE
spacecraft indicate we are currently in a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (22-24
January).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 083 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 084/085/085 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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