Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N23W62)
indicated a slight decrease in area and spot number and maintains a
bipolar magnetic configuration. No significant flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (30 September). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on days two and three (01-02 October) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 072 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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