Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 30 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N23W76) has
decreased in size and spot number and currently indicates an alpha
magnetic configuration as it approaches the west limb. No
significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period observed during the period 30/1200Z - 1500Z. Observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the possible arrival of a weak
co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal
hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (01 October) due to a
weak coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet levels are expected for
days two and three (02-03 October).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 072 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/007-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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