Viewing archive of Friday, 7 August 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 07 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the continued
presence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Velocities
varied between 450 km/s and 500 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (08 August). For days two and three
(09-10 August), quiet to unsettled conditions with a slight chance
for isolated active periods are expected as the next recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 068 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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