Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 August 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a high-speed stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. Velocities increased from around 380
km/s to 520 km/s with +/- 13 nT fluctuations in the IMF Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods for day one (07 August) as the recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream remains geoeffective. Quiet conditions are
expected on day two (08 August). Quiet to unsettled conditions with
a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected for day
three (09 August) due to the next recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 067 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/007-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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