Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 August 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 08 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
and the visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated the unsettled conditions were due
to a period of southward IMF Bz coupled with increases in velocities
and IMF Bt associated with a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar
wind velocities reached a peak of 533 km/sec at 08/0615Z, then
gradually decreased to a low of 429 km/sec by the end of the summary
period as the high-speed stream subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09
-10 August), with a chance for active periods, due to another
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to mostly quiet levels by day 3 (11 August) as the
high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 067 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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