Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active. A brief period
(06-09Z) of minor storm conditions at mid latitudes and major storm
conditions at high latitudes was observed as solar wind speeds at
ACE increased above 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet as the coronal hole high speed
stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 069 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 012/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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