Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The solar disk was void of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet but increased to
active levels from 0000-0600Z, then declined to unsettled levels
from 0600-1200Z, and were quiet for the remainder of the interval.
Solar wind observations at ACE indicate a gradual decline in solar
wind velocity (day-end values were around 450 km/s) as the
high-speed stream rotates out of geoeffective position. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (10-12
November).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 068 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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