Viewing archive of Monday, 10 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 1008
(N33E01) emerged on the disk today and managed to produce todays
only event, a B3 x-ray flare at 2031Z. The group is a small (40
millionths), fairly simple D-type sunspot group although there is
some weak polarity mixing in the trailer part of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days (11-13 November).
There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
1008 if it continues to emerge.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours.
ACE solar wind data showed a steady decline of solar wind velocity
during the past 24 hours with day-end values around 400 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (11-13 November).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 069 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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