Viewing archive of Friday, 5 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. One period of
active to minor storm conditions was observed between 0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 December), followed
by quiet conditions for the remainder of the forecast period (7-8
Dec) as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 069 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 04% | 01% | 00% |
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