Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 January 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually
decreased from 538 to 413 km/sec during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during day 1 (02 January).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during
days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 069 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 012/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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