Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft show a continued influence of
the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind
speed has averaged around 660 km/s with Bz fluctuations from +/- 4
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated
active periods for 04-05 October. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for 06 October.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 067 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 007/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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