Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 02 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicate solar wind speeds averaging around
700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods for 03 October. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for
04-05 October.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 066 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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