Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 30 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
New-cycle polarity Region 1007 (N35E15) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar
wind measurements indicated Earth remained within a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities ranged from
632 to 723 km/sec during the period. IMF Bz varied from 06 to -05 nT
during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit increased to high levels at 30/1605Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (31 October)
with a chance for active levels at high latitudes. Mostly quiet
levels are expected during days 2 - 3 (01 - 02 November).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 067 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 068/069/069 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 016/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 013/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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