Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions.
The ACE solar wind signatures indicate the increase in activity is
due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocity
increased steadily through the last 24 hour period with speeds
averaging around 615 km/s at report time. The IMF Bz also
fluctuated from -10 nT to +13 nT during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly at unsettled levels with isolated
periods of active conditions for 13-14 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 15 July.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 065 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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