Viewing archive of Friday, 11 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind signatures
observed at ACE are indicating the onset of a high speed stream from
a recurrent coronal hole. The velocity has showed a steady increase
from around 340 to 450 km/s, and the IMF Bz component has ranged
from +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes for 13 July.
Predominately unsettled conditions are expected for 14-15 July as
the high speed stream continues to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 066 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 004/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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