Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 June 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind signatures indicating a co-rotating interaction region
followed by the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream were
observed by the ACE spacecraft. Wind speed reached a maximum of
about 700 km/s at 15/1610Z. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz
component ranged between +/- 13 nT during the early part of the
summary period; for the remainder of the period Bz ranged between
+/-6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 June),
with a chance for minor storm conditions possible due to the coronal
hole high speed stream. On days two and three (17 and 18 June)
expect activity levels to decrease to mostly unsettled levels with a
chance for active periods as the high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 067 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 016/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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