Viewing archive of Monday, 19 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 994 (S12W36) and
996 (N09E18) have not produced any flare activity this period. Both
regions have a Bxo Beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
observations from the Ace Spacecraft have shown a steady increase in
velocity from around 340 km/s to 400 km/s in the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm conditions at
high latitudes on day one (20 May). Activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three ( 21 - 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 069 Predicted 20 May-22 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 19 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 020/030-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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