Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The two spotted regions on the disk were quiet
and stable,
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small increase in
solar wind speed from around 360 km/s up to about 440 km/s occurred
between 1200-1400Z. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a
high speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods for the first day (21 May) as the high speed stream is
expected to continue. Observations of the solar wind at the Stereo-B
spacecraft suggest that the solar wind velocity should increase to
around 550-600 km/s. Activity levels are expected to decline to
unsettled levels with occasional active periods for the second day
(22 May) and should be predominantly unsettled for the third day (23
May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 069 Predicted 21 May-23 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 20 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 015/025-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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