Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk is
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible on day one (09 March). Isolated major storm periods
are possible at high latitudes during this period. The increase in
activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to active levels are expected on days two and three (10-11
March) as the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream begin to
wane.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 070 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 020/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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