Viewing archive of Friday, 4 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W54) produced isolated B-class subflares. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 989.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to active levels during 04/1800 - 2100Z due to
increased solar wind velocities and IMF magnitude combined with
periods of southward IMF Bz. ACE signatures indicated Earth entered
the co-rotating interaction region between slow and fast solar wind
flows. Velocities increased to 507 km/sec near the close of the
summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at active levels during days 1 - 2 (05 - 06 April)
with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to coronal
hole effects. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
levels on day 3 (07 April) with active to minor storm periods at
high latitudes as coronal hole effects decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 073 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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