Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
increase in activity is attributable to the arrival of a high speed
stream. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 450 km/s to
approximately 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes on day 1 (11 February) due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (12-13 February) as the effects
of the coronal hole high-speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 073 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 015/015-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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