Viewing archive of Monday, 11 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to the
continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of
approximately 760 km/s at 11/0825Z. At the end of the summary
period wind speed had declined to below 680 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period (12-14 February). Isolated periods of active conditions at
middle latitudes and minor storm levels at high latitudes are
possible all three days, due to continued effects of the high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 072 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 012/012-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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