Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of 655 km/s at
approximately 19/0159Z, and Bz ranged between +/- 5nT. Wind speed
ended the summary period at around 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods possible on days one and two (20 - 21 February). On day
three (22 February) activity levels should decrease to predominately
quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 072 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/008-008/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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