Viewing archive of Monday, 17 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 986
(S04W71) has decayed to a single alpha spot. A slow-moving coronal
mass ejection was observed off the west limb at 17/0830Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period
(18 - 20 March). The CME observed today is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 070 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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