Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft began the period at around 600
km/s, and ended the period at approximately 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active conditions possible on day one (21 February). On days two
and three (22 - 23 February) activity levels are expected to decline
to predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 071 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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