Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low level B-class flares. Region 978 (S07E01) is the only
sunspot region on the disk and is a 240 millionths Eai beta-gamma
group. The group has been relatively stable during the past 24
hours. There appears to be a new region rotating around east limb
near N28.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
sometime during the next three days (12-14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled although there was an
active period from 10/2100Z-11/0000Z. Solar wind observations from
ACE show the onset of a co-rotating interaction region late
yesterday, followed by the onset of a high speed stream around
11/0000Z. Peak solar wind speeds were around 650 km/s. Nonetheless
the solar wind magnetic field has been relatively weak since
11/0130Z. The solar wind speed is currently declining slowly with
values around 550 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for an isolated
active period for 12 December. Conditions should be predominantly
quiet for 13-14 December.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 093 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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