Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 978 (S06W12)
has produced several low level B-class flares. The region is mostly
unchanged and remains a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A
northern plage region with reverse polarity characteristics,
according to GONG magnetograms, is the only other solar feature of
note.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 978 remains capable of producing an isolated
C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period from 12/0900-1200Z at mid-latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements indicate the continued influence of the recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 13-15 December.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 094 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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