Viewing archive of Monday, 10 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 10 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S08E14) grew
in complexity over the past day and is currently a beta-gamma
magnetic type.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low. The trend in Region 978 suggest a good chance
for C-class activity..
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds at
ACE began to increase, approaching 440 km/s by 1800Z. Temperature
and density trends also signal the approach of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled early in the period as the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Occasional
active periods may occur, particularly at high latitudes.
Extrapolation from STEREO Behind suggests a peak speed near 600 km/s
by 11 November at 1000Z. The disturbed conditions are exptected to
diminish by 13 December.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 087 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/012-008/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 06% | 06% |
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