Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 960 (S05W85)
produced A B4 flare at 13/1347Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An apparent solar sector boundary
crossing occurred at 13/1800Z. Solar wind speed increased from
approximately 310 km/s to 420 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels on 14-15 June, with
isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 16 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 071 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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