Viewing archive of Friday, 4 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10W44)
produced several low level B-class flares during the past 24 hours.
No spots are currently visible in Region 934 (S07W25).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 05 May. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 083 Predicted 05 May-07 May 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 04 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 005/005-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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