Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 953 (S11W30) produced a
C8.5 flare at 02/2348Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 04-05 May. Expect quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods on 06 May as a recurrent coronal
hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 083 Predicted 04 May-06 May 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 May 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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