Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 953 (S10W57) produced a C4.2/1f flare at 05/1247Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 08 May.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 May 081
  Predicted   06 May-08 May  080/075/075
  90 Day Mean        05 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  008/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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