Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 922 (S14E31), the lesser
of the two active regions in the southeast, produced an impulsive C1
X-ray flare at 0423 UTC. The region grew during the day, as did its
nearby neighbor Region 921 (S06E16). Region 921 is a moderate sized
group of approximately 370 millionths, showing a substantial field
of bright plage. Frequent Type 3 radio bursts occurred throughout
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is an increasing probability of an isolated M-class event
pending further development in Regions 921 and 922.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Activity increased
slightly with the very pronounced crossing of a sector boundary
midway though the day. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels once again.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 088 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 007/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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