Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 29 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare from Region
927 (N10E32) at 1518Z. Region 927 continues to grow and has
developed some magnetic complexity: there appears to be a small
delta configuration in the dominant trailer spot. Region 926
(S10E19) is growing slowly but is magnetically simple and only
managed to produce one B-class flare during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (30 November - 2 December).
Region 927 is the most likely source for an isolated C-flare. There
is a very slight chance for an M-class event over the next three
days, especially if the growth trend in Region 927 continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with a chance for some unsettled
periods at high latitudes for the next three days (30 November - 2
December).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 085 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 007/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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