Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity continued very low. Region 921 (S07E30)
grew in white light and h-alpha to be a moderate-sized sunspot group
of approximately 250 millionths. It also shows a degree of magnetic
complexity with mixed polarities within its spots. It has been quiet
to this point, however.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with a C-class flare from Region 921 distinctly
possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Energetic electrons at
geosynchronous orbit were again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled throughout the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 087 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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