Viewing archive of Monday, 23 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 23 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. New region 918
(S04W72) was numbered today. LASCO imagery shows a CME on the East
limb, apparently originating from the backside. This event is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed remains
elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Its
current speed is approximately 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 076 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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