Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 917 (S05W46)
now has a magnetic classification of Beta-gamma.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with one period of
minor storming. Solar wind speed remains elevated though it has
been slowly and steadily decreasing. Its current speed is
approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. An isolated period of minor storming is
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 076 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 008/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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