Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 18 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Region 923 (S05W61) continues to have the potential for
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (19 - 21 November).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 089 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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