Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 26 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 911 (N08E73) was numbered today. A CME was observed on the LASCO coronagraph at 26/0131Z. This slow moving CME was apparently from behind the east limb and is not predicted to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at mid-latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated (currently 500 km/s) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 27 - 29 September.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Sep 071
  Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  006/008-006/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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