Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 14 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 909 (S08W95) produced a
C1 flare at 14/0735Z, along with multiple B-class flares, during the
past 24 hours. Region 908 (S13W47) produced two B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on 15 Sep. Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods are expected for 16-17 Sep,
as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 083 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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