Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 13 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S09W80)
produced multiple B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
largest of these was a B7 flare at 13/0416Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14-16
Sep). Isolated active conditions are possible on 16 Sep as a
recurrent coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 083 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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