Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 904 (S13W42) produced a couple of B-class flares today. This
region continues to be large, but has lost some of its magnetic
complexity in the trailing spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 904.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
An active period was observed between 18/0300Z - 18/0600Z. A weak
shock was observed by ACE at approximately 18/1550Z. Following the
shock, the solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 360
km/sec to about 420 km/sec. However, the IMF remained predominantly
northward. There was a 5 nT sudden impulse observed at the Boulder
magnetometer at 18/1644Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels, with possible
isolated major storm conditions on 19 August, due to the full halo
CME observed on 16 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected
on 20 August, due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective
position. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on 21 August.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 089 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 025/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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