Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 June 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 14 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892 (S07W70) produced low level B-class flares early in the period. Other numbered regions have been quiescent during the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed
increased from 400 km/sec to a maximum of 550 km/sec late in the
period, this coinciding with an anticipated recurrent coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible on 15 June due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 075 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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