Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 June 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 892 (S06W85) produced
two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 15/0431 UTC and a C1.4 at 15/0823 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. Major
storm periods were observed between 15/0600 - 0900 UTC and 15/0900 -
1200 UTC. Activity was due to the effects from a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 16 June. On 17 and 18 June, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 076 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 010/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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