Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 882 (S12W82)
remains the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the visible
desk but has exhibited no growth or activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. The large
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a
geoeffective position. Consequently, the solar wind speed increased
to approximately 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Expect
unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm periods on
12 May due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 May.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 076 Predicted 12 May-14 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 11 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 018/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 020/025-010/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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