Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 10 2216 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 882 (S12W70) showed
no change this period, and produced no significant activity. Region
880 (S09W17), the only other region with sunspots on the visible
disk, was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The large recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream is now rotating into a geoeffective position.
Enhancements were observed in both the solar wind plasma and
interplanetary magnetic field measurements. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. A recurrent
coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position. Expect active
to minor storm periods on 11 and 12 May. Isolated major storm
periods are possible on both days. Quiet to unsettled levels, with
occasional active periods are expected on 13 May.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 078 Predicted 11 May-13 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 10 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 025/030-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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