Viewing archive of Friday, 14 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. No significant
flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
interval of major to severe storm conditions was observed at the
Boulder magnetometer between 14/0600Z and 1200Z. The interplanetary
magnetic field strengthened, and the Z-component rotated smoothly
from 13/1500Z through 14/1200Z from 17 nT through a maximum negative
value of -15 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 480
km/s to 570 km/s. The unusual solar wind conditions appear to be
consistent with a corotating interaction region that may have been
complicated by the presence of transient flow. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Isolated periods of minor to
major storm conditions are possible on 15-16 April due to a coronal
hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions will
return on 17 April.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 079 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 032/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 025/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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