Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 18 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 848 (S18E37)
emerged quickly over the past 24 hours into a D-type group with
minor magnetic mixing. No significant changes were noted in the
remaining two sunspot regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from
new Region 848.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor
storm period between 18/0900 - 1200Z. A short period of southward
IMF Bz accounted for the storm conditions. Solar speed was slightly
enhanced, ranging between 500 - 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 086 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 010/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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